Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
