Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
